Glen Thoughts

Back in October, I started looking at the team that our Great Nation will field at home to defend our honour. A number of players that I did not have on my team who have been having phenomenal seasons, and a few that I had on my list who need to get dropped as a result. Since the 2010 games are less than 365 days from now, this is a good time to revise the list and see some changes.

Goaltenders

2006 Roster: Martin Brodeur, Roberto Luongo, Marty Turco

Glen’s October Prediction: Martin Brodeur, Roberto Luongo, Carey Price

Despite having missed most of the season, Brodeur is still a virtual lock for the goaltending trio. Roberto Luongo started out incredibly hot, but got injured, and has slowed down a bit since returning, but is another one of those players who should stay as one of the top two tenders.

I still have the utmost confidence in Martin Brodeur serving as the starter, he won the 2002 Gold Medal, and remains one of the greatest high pressure goalies of all time.

Price has struggled a bit of late, but I still have faith in him. This is mostly because other contenders like Gigure and Ward have struggled as well. I think that Price should have a spot still on this team, but he could be threatend by Blue Jackets sensation, Steve Mason, who should run away with the Calder Trophy, mono or not. If he has as successful of a sophmore season as his rookie campaign, expect him to get some serious consideration for the third spot.

Glen’s Current Prediction: Martin Brodeur, Roberto Luongo, Carey Price

Defensemen

2006 Roster: Rob Blake, Jay Bouwmeester, Adam Foote, Bryan McCabe, Chris Pronger, Wade Redden, Robyn Regehr Reserves: Dan Boyle, Injured: Scott Niedermayer, Ed Jovanovski

Glen’s October Prediction:

Phaneuf – Weber
Pronger – Burns
Niedermayer – Bouwmeester
Green
Reserve: Campbell

Like my goaltending predictions, I remain pretty confident with the selections. Shea Weber had an excellent start to the season, and while he has slowed a bit, he has solidified himself as one of the top defensemen in the league. Mike Green has far exceeded expectation, and is currently scoring over a point a game, which is simply breathtaking for a defenseman. As a result, he deserves a higher spot on the roster than 7th defenseman.

Dan Boyle has been having a very good season, playing for a very good team, and as a result he no doubt deserves a spot on the roster, which would probably bump Brent Burns down to the reserves (which is fine, since he could also sub in as a defensive forward should one of them get injured) and leaves Brian Campbell, sadly, off the team. However, the Blackhawks d-man would be the first choice should Scott Neidermayer elect to retire.

Glen’s Current Prediction:

Phaneuf – Weber
Pronger – Green
S. Niedermayer – Bouwmester
Boyle

Reserves: Burns

Forwards:

2006 Roster: Todd Bertuzzi, Shane Doan, Kris Draper, Simon Gagne, Dany Heatley, Jarome Iginla, Vincent Lecavalier, Rick Nash, Brad Richards, Joe Sakic, Ryan Smyth, Martin St. Louis, Joe Thornton Reserves: Jason Spezza, Eric Staal

Glen’s October Prediction:

Lecavalier – Crosby – Iginla
Nash – Getzlaf – Healtey
Towes – Thornton – Spezza
Morrow – M. Richards – Perry
E. Staal

Reserves: Stamkos, Horton

This is easily the most difficult roster spot to fill. There is simply a glut of talent here, which makes Steve Yzerman’s selection incredibly difficult. This is also the spot that I see the most amount of change coming.

The first most obvious addition is Jeff Carter. After struggling last season, he has been one of the biggest break-out stars of the season, and is currently second to Alexander Ovechkin in goals scored, so not only is he a no-brainer to add to the team, I have him penciled to play with Sydney Crosby on the top line, as those two would be certain to generate some magic on the ice. Also, there is one of the most underrated players in the league, Marc Savard, who is finally getting recognized as the superstar that he is. He is comfortably in the top ten in scoring, where he should stay for the rest of the year. His one problem though, is that he is a natural playmaker, and in reality each line only needs one star playmaker, so I have him low on the order as he will probably lose out on playing time to the likes Sidney Crosby, Ryan Getzlaf and Joe Thornton. Lastly, Patrick Marleau has really emerged from the doghouse and has played like the world class two-way player that we know that he is. I think that he would be an excellent addition to the checking line.

Jason Spezza is the most obvious player to eliminate. While he hasn’t been as bad as he has been made out to be, he still has not played at nearly high enough of a level to make a team this elite, same for Eric Staal. Steven Stamkos does not seem to be adequetly prepared for the NHL, so 2010 may be a little too soon, and I would be surprised if Tavares is ready, even for a shadow squad. Nathan Horton has been decent, but hardly superstar worthy, so scratch him as well. Also, even though Toews has had a sub-par year, I think that he is made for high pressure moments, like this tournament, so he stays on, at least for the time being.

So the forwards should look like this:

Carter – Crosby – Iginla
Nash – Getzlaf – Heatley
LeCavalier – Thoronton – Toews
Morrow – M. Richards – Marleau
Savard

Reserves: Perry, Doan

Coaches:

In all honesty, a lot about this really depends on who wins the Stanley Cup. If Detroit wins again, then Babcock is a lock, if Montreal fulfills the magic it should be Carbonneau, and if Boston completes the Cinderella story, expect Claude Julien, and if the Sharks finally get it done, it will be McLellan. However, there are still a few big names in the mix, namely Ken Hitchcock, Brent Sutter, and Wayne Gretzky. My last prediction was Carbonneau with Hitchcock and Sutter as his assistants, and while I still think that is a good team, I may be leaning slightly differently now. I think that Babcock can not really be ignored, and he should be reunited with McLellan (former Red Wings assistant coach) to handle the offense, and Julien to deal with the defense.

Keep tuning back, I will probably have another few of these posts in the coming months, and also, I will try and predict any potential obstacles.

Until next time,

G

Archieved Posts:

Journey to Gold – Edition I
Obstacles to Gold – Edition I (United States and Russia)

After profiling my thoughts for Team Canada in 2010 a short while ago, I decided that we need to take a look at our opponents at Vancouver. Between now and the actual Olympics, I will periodically take a look at our biggest challenges to winning the Gold Medal. In the first edition, I will look at Canada’s two most historical hockey rivals, the United States and Russia.

The United States

Looking up and down their 2006 Olympic Roster, I can’t help but wonder just what on earth they were thinking. They kept essentially the same team that won Silver in 2002, which was essentially the same team that won the World Cup in 1996. The core of the team stayed the same as Amonte, Guerin, Weight, Roenick, et al still played a prominent role on the team. While this was an exciting group of forwards to build around a decade ago, they really overperformed in Salt Lake City, and should not have been counted on quite so heavily.

The United States won the World Junior Championships in 2004, and some of that incredible wealth of talent should have been counted on in Torino. Now they find themselves years later with a huge amount of young talent, especially up front, but few of them have the big game experience needed to win large tournaments like this.

That being said, they still have a very good team, and should be considered a dark horse with potential to pull off an upset or two of one of the favourites.

Goaltending:

This area should be a strength for the squad, as they boast a good amount of depth at this position. At the last Olympics, they were in a bit of an odd state as netminding stallwart Mike Richter was clearly on his way down, with no immediate apparent in sight. This time, things are different as they have a very good top two netminders in Rick DiPietro and Ryan Miller. These two should compete for the starting spot, with no obvious favourite. I personally would chose Miller since he has more experience in high pressure situations, having made it to the Conference Finals twice in recent years, but neither is a bad decision. As for the third goaltender, it is a toss-up between Florida backup Craig Anderson, who has shown flashes of excellence as a starter, or the always reliable veteran Tim Thomas. I’d give the nod to Thomas, but again, Anderson would not be a bad choice either.

Glen’s 2010 Picks:
Ryan Miller
Rick DiPietro
Reserve: Tim Thomas

Defensemen:

The US is going to be going though a changing of the guard at it’s rear, as Darien Hatcher, Matthieu Schneider and Chris Chelios have to see their best days behind them. Instead they will be replaced with the new generation of American d-men, includings the likes of both Jack and Eric Johnson (no relation), Mark Stuart, and Keith Ballard. The team should have some continuity as 2006 alumni John-Micheal Liles, Paul Martin, and Brian Rafalski take part of the team, only in a more prominent role. Also, I added Dustin Byfuglien as a reserve, since he can easily fill in a position as either a defensemen or a checking forward should anyone get injured. While their defense group is certainly nothing to be embarassed by, it has to be considered on the weaker side of things when compared to the Canadians or Swedes.

Glen’s 2010 Picks:

Ballard – Martin
Liles – J. Johnson
E. Johnson – Rafalski
Stuart
Reserve: Stuart

Forwards:

Now here is where things get really interesting for the Americans. They have an absolute embarassment of riches in young forwards. They also still have some aging veterans who are performing well passed their expiration date including Bill Guerin, Keith Tkachuk, Mike Modano, and Doug Weight, to say nothing of current stars such as Zach Parise, Eric Cole, Scott Gomez, Jason Pomminville and Chris Drury.

All that being said, there is simply not enough room for all of the players listed above, since this team needs to be built around one man, Patrick Kane. This kid is good, really, really good. He is such a smooth skater and a crisp passer, he needs to be the centre piece for this squad. Similar things can also be said for Peter Mueller, Phil Kessel, Dustin Brown, and David Booth, who are all young with teremendous upsides. The forward squad I chose is an attempt to patch together experience, ability, and potential, with more of an eye towards the future than the past.

E. Cole – Mueller – Kane
Drury – Gomez – Kessel
Parise – O’Sullivan – Pomminville
Tkachuk – Modano – Gionta
Brown

Reserves: Booth, Dubinsky

All in all, the US Team should generate a great deal of optimism. While they should be considered a tier below powerhouses like Russia, Finland, Canada, and Sweden, they have a great deal of potential, and this should be a very important step towards future growth. If the NHL does participate in the 2014 games, the Americans have to be considered one of the favourites for that year.

Russia

Unlike the Americans, the Russians have all of the talent to be considered a heavy medal favourite for this year. They have earned medals in the last several World Junior Championships, and won Gold in last year’s World Championship. They also have one of the best top six forward contingents, a very underrated defense corps, and one of the best starting goalies in the world.

Goaltending:

Three words, Nabokov, Nabokov, Nabokov. He is one of the true elite goaltenders in the league, and has to be one the clear favourite to be the starter for his country. However, one can not underestimate Coyotes starter Ilya Bryzgalov, who could easily step in to face any opponent and steal a win. Round the trio out with veteran Nikolai Khabibulin, and the Russians have a goaltending trio that competes with Canada or Finland for the best in the world.

Glen’s 2010 Picks:
Nabokov
Bryzgalov
Reserve: Khabibulin

Defense:

The Russians have a stero-type for being all offense, but with solid rearguards like Anton Volchenkov, Dimitri Kalinin, Sergei Gonchar, and Sergei Zubov, the Russians should be more that capable of taking care of their own end. Add in Andrei Markov, former NHL Dany Markov (no relation), Oilers d-man Denis Gregeshkov, and Jackets stud Fedor Tyutin, and the Russians are all of a sudden pretty deep in the back. Also, my apologies, but my knowledge of any KHL stalwards is escaping me right now, so there may even be some other surprises in store.

Glen’s 2010 Picks:

Volchenkov – Zubov
Kalinin – Gonchar
A. Markov – D. Markov
Gregshkov
Reserve: Tyutin

Forwards:

This is where things get downright scary. At the top of the pile they have Ovechkin, Kovalchuk, Malkin, Semin, Datsyuk, and Frolov, who probably have more firepower than even Canada’s top six. This group is complemented by the likes of Kovalev, Federov, Afiniganov, Zherdev, and prodigal-son Radulov. Also of note are KHL standouts Sergei Mozaykin and Alexei Morozov, who finished 1-2 in KHL scoring last year. Morozov was also the Captain of the last two World Championship teams, and the Russians have a starling 16-0 record with him wearing the C (they lost in 2007 when he was injured), so expect him to be given the honours again.

The Russians due have as light weakness though, and that is a lack of star-power at centre. After Malkin and Datsyuk, they only have Federov listed as a natural centre, meaning at least one of their wingers (probably Kovalev, but potentially Frolov) will have to move to the middle. Switching from winger to centre is a bigger challenge than the other way around, and that could be a weakness for another team to exploit. Other than that, their forward core has little to no weaknesses, as they do have some very good two-way players like Datsyuk and Federov. Their offensive arsenal really has to make them one of the favourites going into Vancouver.

Glen’s 2010 Picks:

Ovechkin – Malkin – Semin
Kovalchuk – Datsyuk – Radulov
Frolov – Kovalev – Morozov
Mozyakin – Federov – Afinoganov
Zherdev

Reserve: Filitaov

So there we have two of our biggest threats to our dream story of Gold at home. Both teams have tremendous offensive firepower which should give the Canadian Defense a huge challenge. Next time I revist this feature I will look at the two teams that earned the top honours in 2006, Sweden and Finland.

Until next time,

G

With the announcement that Steve Yzerman will be the Executive Director of the 2010 Canadian Olympic Hockey Team, I have decided to help make Stevie Y’s choice a bit easier, by tracking my picks for the 2010 Roster over the next year and a bit.

After the abortion that was the 2006 Olympics, I think that Hockey Canada has learned a few things. As heartless as it sounds, they need to ignore past loyalties to the program, instead focusing on the present and the future. This is what worked in 2002, and again in 2004 for the World Cup. They focused on the best players available, and paid no mind of the players who have been loyal to Hockey Canada. With only a finite roster size, they can not afford to make any loyalty driven picks such as Kris Draper was in 2006, or a gamble like Todd Bertuzzi was at the same year. Having those players on the ice while Jason Spezza and Eric Staal watched from the press box, and a rookie Sidney Crosby watched from North America, is an absolute crime to hockey.

One of the strengths of the 2002 team was that it was able to combine a group of proven winners such as Mario Lemieux, Steve Yzerman, and Joe Sakic, with some hungry young players like Simon Gange and Jarome Iginla, and some hungry veterans who had never quite reached the mountain top including Eric Lindros and Owen Nolan. Also, with the only exception of Mike Peca, they did not take a single defensive forward, instead forcing usual offensive threats Theo Fleury and Joe Niewendyk into those roles. This also enable those checking forwards to break out and create a scoring chance in the wide open Olympic game. With current crop of exciting and dynamic young players, this should be able to be done with little problems.

Goaltenders

2006 Roster: Martin Brodeur, Roberto Luongo, Marty Turco

Martin Brodeur has essentially secured himself a place between the pipes on Team Canada whenever he wants it. He truly cemented himself as a legendary performer in 2002, and could easily ride on those coat tails for the rest of his career. That being said, he is still one of the elite goaltenders in the NHL, and is on pace to shatter all goaltending records, probably by the end of this season. He has to be considered a lock for this position, and a favourite for the starting position.

His biggest competition for the starting spot comes from fellow 2006 alumni, Roberto Luongo. Luongo has been dazzling for his entire NHL career, even when the teams in front of him have struggled. He has defied tradition and been named the Captain of his team, so he definitely brings a great deal of character to the locker room. At the end of the day, it will all come down to whoever is playing better at the time between he and Broduer. I’ll give it to Martin, but only barely.

Turco has to be considered in the running for the ellusive third spot on this roster, but he faces some stiff comeptition from the likes of Cam Ward, and J-S Gigure, who have the edge over Turco in terms of a winning pedigree. However, I think that the third spot will go to the future of Canadian Goaltending, Carey Price. Yes, he’s young, yes he sturggled in the playoffs last season, but he is going to be the answer. Brodeur and Luongo will not be around forever, and they will need someone to carry the torch for them and Price is the best answer. Even if he does not see any action in the tournament (like Ed Belfour in 2002), the experience he will gain will prove invaluable for future teams.

Glen’s Picks for 2010:
Martin Brodeur
Roberto Luongo
Reserve: Carey Price

Defensemen:

2006 Roster: Rob Blake, Jay Bouwmeester, Adam Foote, Bryan McCabe, Chris Pronger, Wade Redden, Robyn Regehr Reserves: Dan Boyle, Injured: Scott Niedermayer, Ed Jovanovski

As much blame for the Torino failures that gets places on the forwards, it is hard not to look at this squad and wonder if it really is the best players we had available. Granted injuries to Niedermayer and Jovanovski hurt, but this defense really lacked the same star power that the 2002 team had.

So what needs fixing? For starters, both Rob Blake and Adam Foote are in the twilight of their careers, so are easy to be cut. While I do feel that Boyle, McCabe and Redden will have good years this season, I don’t see them in the same company as the elite defensemen that are emerging in the new NHL, so get rid of them too. As much as I like both Jovanovski and Regehr, I don’t see either of them having the speed required to perform on an international ice surface, and both of them narrowly missing out on the cut to younger, more skilled defensemen.

This leaves only Neidermayer (my pick for Captain of the team), Pronger, and Bouwmeester returning. Leaving four spots on the main roster, and one on the reserves for a host of fantastic players.

Allow me to start with the obvious choice, Dion Phaneuf. He is easily in the top five defensemen in the league, and should be considered a lock to be on the top pairing, shadowing the likes of Henrik Zetterberg and Alexander Ovechkin.

Speaking of Ovechkin, the next most obvious candidate is a teammate of his, Mike Green. Green exploded last season, emerging very quickly as one of the leagues pre-eminant offensive blueliners. He figures to play a prominant role on the power-play, plus he practices regularly against the Russian Superstar, and may be able to exploit a weakness of his, if there is one.

Another player who rapidly emerged last season, is Minnesota Wild Defenseman, Brent Burns. Despite palying on one of the most defensively minded teams in the NHL, he was still able to rack up a respectable amount of power play points, while being a physical threat. He also performed well above expectations in the World Championships, which has to make him a favourite to play on this team.

For the last roster, and one reserve spot, I expect them to be split between youth and experience. For experience, the best of the players who were not part of the 2006 team have to be Chris Phillips, Dan Boyle, and Brian Campbell. While the Sens fan in me would love to see Phillips put on the red sweater, I think that the choice has to be Campbell, who should figure prominently in the Blackhawks renassaince over the next few seasons. As for youth, the decision is much tougher, as Braydon Cobourn, Shea Weber, Dan Hamhuis, Marc Staal, and Duncan Keith should make serious cases to be drafted, saying nothing for rookie sensation (and former World Junior Captain) Karl Alzner. Choosing from that list of elite palyers is tough no doubt, however, I think that at the end of the day, someone is going to remember Shea Weber (along with Dion Phaneuf) absolutely embarassing both Ovechkin and Malkin in the 2005 World Junior Championships, and decide that pair just needs to be reunited. This would actually push Campbell to the reserve, which given the glut of offensive talent on the blue-line, is not as big of a loss as to be expected.

Glen’s Pick for 2010:

Phaneuf – Weber
Pronger – Burns
Niedermayer – Bouwmeester
Green
Reserve: Campbell

Forwards:

2006 Roster: Todd Bertuzzi, Shane Doan, Kris Draper, Simon Gagne, Dany Heatley, Jarome Iginla, Vincent Lecavalier, Rick Nash, Brad Richards, Joe Sakic, Ryan Smyth, Martin St. Louis, Joe Thornton Reserves: Jason Spezza, Eric Staal

Now here is where things get really interesting. As mentioned earlier, Todd Bertuzzi and Kris Draper are out. As great of a two-way players as Brad Richards and Ryan Smyth are, neither of them have the real raw talent anymore that some of our other options do, so count them out. Martin St. Louis is a great play-maker, but he is getting older, and could easily be replaced by a number of younger players. If Gagne is able to fully recover from his concussion and score 40 goals this season, then he would be a lock for this team, unfortunetly I just do not see that happening, leaving him out of the running. Shane Doan should be in contention for the roster, however I see him being a last minute bump. Lastly, there is Joe Sakic, a true legend, and one of the all time greats. He decided at the last minute to return for this season, and could potentially return next year, but he will be 40 at the start of the Olympics, so I expect him to sit this one out.

This leaves only Heatley, Iginla, Lecavalier, Nash, and Thornton from the main roster, with Spezza and Staal being obvious call ups from the reserves, freeing up six spots on the main roster, and two spots for reserves.

The most obvious addition, is the most obvious ommission from the 2006 squad, Sidney Crosby. In 2005-06, he was on his way to a 102 season, and was the obvious future of Canadian hockey, yet was somehow left off of the team. This will be his team to lead, and he is a given for the teams first line centre.

With Nash and Heatley already on this team, you need to look no further than the third member of their dominant line at the 2008 World Hockey Championships, Anaheim Ducks centre, Ryan Getzlaf. He is a rapidly emerging two-way forward, who already has a Stanley Cup ring. Plus, the unreal chemistry exhibited with Nash and Heatley make him a no brainer.

Getzlaf’s teammate in Anaheim, Correy Perry, is growing into an elite power forward. He can hit, score, and shut down. I see him taking Doan’s spot on the checking line, and filling in a similar role to Theoren Fleury in 2002, only with less backage.

Joining Perry as a two-way shut down player, is one of the most improved players over the past 12 months, Flyers centre Mike Richards. He really has the talent to do it all, and he saw a great deal of time in the playoffs against both Ovechkin and Malkin.

The third member of the International Grind Line should be Dallas Captain, Brenden Morrow. He proved throughout the playoffs that he is a leader who can step it up in big time situations. He has the physical presence to work players down, and the offensive upside to capitalize on their mistakes.

This leaves only one spot on the main roster, and two reserve spots open for a whole host of talented, young players. I think that Hockey Canada should have learned from their mistakes in not taking Crosby last time, by giving a roster spot to one of the next young phenoms. I would give it to Steven Stamkos over Jonathan Tavares, just because Stamkos is a year older, and has more experienece at the World Junior level.

The final two spots are going to be difficult to fill. However, I think that the spot on the main roster has to go to one of the most dynamic players in the new NHL, who has proven his talent at the International Level, even playing in the World Championships before the NHL, Jonathan Toews. I could see his speed meshing well with the likes of Jason Spezza for some reason.

The last spot, on the reserve, has a great deal of potential, with the likes of Jordan Staal, Derek Roy, Brad Boyes, and Jeff Carter all having tremendous upsides. However, I think that the real star on the rise, who can paly both ends is Florida Panthers centre/winger, Nathan Horton. He is going to be a superstar in the NHL, and deserves a spot on this team. Also, as a bonus, he could easily step in to any spot on the roster should any of the players get injured.

Glen’s Pick for 2010:

Lecavalier – Crosby – Iginla
Nash – Getzlaf – Healtey
Towes – Thornto – Spezza
Morrow – M. Richards – Perry
E. Staal

Reserves: Stamkos, Horton

Coaches:

Lastly, there is still the tough decision for who to sit behind the bench. Possible contenders include Wayne Gretzky, Ken Hitchcock, Alain Vigneault, and Andy Murray. However, the favourite has to be Detroit Red Wings coach, Mike Babcock. With his winning record, there is little to fault him, however, I think that Guy Carbonneau is the best choice. He does a great job of coordinating a balanced attack for a young offensive team, which is precissely the squad that Canada should field. I would put both Hitchcock and Sutter as the assistant coaches, to be able to coordinate the defense.

Tune back into this blog in the coming months as I expect this to be a regular feature, should I decide to add or subtract some players from this list.

Until next time,

G